In 2004, a number of states had referenda on their ballots for Defense of Marriage resolutions, laws, or amendments. I’ve seen data that suggests that many conservative voters in swing states like Ohio were motivated to go to the polls to vote to protect marriage and, by the way, cast a vote for President Bush. In other words, without those referenda, it’s likely Bush would have lost and Kerry would have been elected.
To my knowledge, there’s no similar broad-based motivator this time around. Will an anti-Hillary or anti-Obama sentiment be enough to motivate conservative voters who are lukewarm about McCain to get them to the polls?
One might take the view that while McCain is not 100 percent reliably pro-life or conservative, no matter what, he’s more pro-life and more conservative than his two possible opponents. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. Hmm.